June 2019 – Market Commentary

June 2019 – Market Commentary

Interest Rate Alert
Interest rates are the lowest they have been in over a year and a half. This may be a great opportunity to purchase or refinance your home or automobile. If you are curious if you could lower the payments on your home, car, or any other debt payments, let us know and we can help you with the process.

MARKET COMMENTARY
In April within our most recent commentary we gave our clients a warning that the market was potentially overvalued and that we reduced risk within our in-house managed portfolios because the indicator that told us to sell in September of 2018 before the big decline was once again sending us an alarm.  We also pay attention to the flow of “smart money” and noticed that a large % of the big institutional investors sold their profits in April and exited the market to a certain degree. That doesn’t always bode well for the “little guys” in the stock market and is sometimes a useful indicator of things to come.  Well, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones proceeded to both drop over 6.5% in the month of May (Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC).

We were prepared for increased volatility, so we kept a defensive positioning in May within our in-house managed TD Ameritrade portfolios and gained between 1.5% and 2.35% depending upon your risk tolerance.  That means we outperformed the market by over 8.0% last month. We also saw this as an opportunity to buy and ended up purchasing three equity positions (Consumer Staples, Utilities, and REITs) on May 31st after the sizeable drop. This has worked out well to begin the month of June. 

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April 2019 – Market Commentary

April 2019 – Market Commentary

Disclaimer:  These are the views of Summit Financial Consulting and should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. 

MARKET COMMENTARY
The first quarter of 2019 saw the stock market rebound from the nearly 20% decline that ended 2018.  Our TD Ameritrade in-house managed portfolios have provided a consistent uptrend over the past few years and 2019 has continued that trend so far.

The S&P 500 is now approaching the levels it reached last September before the market dropped.  It’s worth noting that this is the spot where we sold the majority of our stocks last fall.  We receive an indicator every day from one of our independent research firms that tells us whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.  It ranges from 0 all the way up to 36.  0 is the best buying opportunity and 36 is the best selling opportunity.  The indicator moved all the way to 36, and has since turned red, telling us that there is a higher probability of a drop in the market soon.

Because of this, we have once again taken some defensive measures inside our managed portfolios and have moved inverse in a number of our portfolios.  If this indicator changes to green, or if our other research tools tell us that the market is more likely to jump to all-time-highs and higher, then we will reverse course and step on the gas.  For now, we’re reducing risk to potentially increase protection on the downside.

When you take into consideration that the China trade dispute, North Korean nuclear situation, withdrawals from the wars in Afghanistan and Syria, not to mention plenty of government political disagreements are all up in the air, it’s  certainly a period of time where reviewing the portfolio daily is a good idea.

We will let you know if there is a situation which calls for immediate attention.  If you have any questions about taxes, your investment portfolio, our 401(k) recommendation service, or anything else in general, please give our office a call at (586) 226-2100.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to a friend, family member, or co-worker.  If they would like to be added to our complimentary commentary, please send us an e-mail at info@summitfc.net at your earliest convenience.  If you have had any changes to your income, your job, your family, your health insurance, your risk tolerance, or your overall financial situation, please give us a call so we can discuss it.

Thank you for your confidence and referrals!

Bob, Ken, and Jim 
Summit Financial Consulting

Interesting Points

Billionaire Warren Buffett, a major Apple investor, uses a $20 flip phone, one that he has had for a while, joking that Alexander Graham Bell loaned it to him and he forget to return it. Source:  -CNBC, March 28, 2019

In 2018, movie ticket prices averaged $9.11. Adjusted for inflation, it is now cheaper to go to the movies than it was in the 1970’s. Source: Marketplace, March 14, 2019

On average, the flu kills between 12,000 and 56,000 people in the U.S. each season, according to the CDC. Source:  -The Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2019

A recent poll by the New York Times show that 74% of parents have made an appointment, like a doctor’s visit, for their 18-to-28-year-old children, 16% helped write their job or internship application, and 11% called their child’s employer when an issue arose. Source:  FXStreet, March 22, 2019

Over the 2017 holiday season, a company investigated the germiest airport spots, performing 18 tests across six different surfaces from three major U.S. airports looking to identify the average number of bacteria per square inch. It might surprise you to learn that self-check-in kiosks had the highest number with Atlanta Hartsfield coming in at 1 million CFU. To put that into perspective, an average airport toilet seat contains 172 CFU. Source: -Curiosity, June 21, 2018

In the past five cycles, the time between the Fed’s final interest rate hike and its first interest rate cut has averaged just 6.6 months. Source: CNBC, March 26, 2019uary 2, 2019

The government collected an estimated $4.7 billion in taxes from legal cannabis companies last year on nearly $13 billion in revenue. Source: -Daily-Qz.com, November 14, 2018

Student debt now exceeds $1.5 trillion and nearly 40% of borrowers are expected to default by 2023. Source:  -CNBC, August 13, 2018

Disclosures regarding our performance reporting:  Because some clients are in the 10% tax bracket and others are in the 37% Federal tax bracket, we have decided to report performance before taxes.  If you have a non-qualified account, please feel free to contact us to determine your individualized rate of return after tax. All of Summit’s performance is after our 1.25% advisory fee that is deducted monthly.  Your fees may be higher or lower depending upon the amount of assets invested with our firm.  Feel free to contact us to receive online access so you can see your personalized rate of return.  The Aggregate bond index we use is ticker: AGG.  All dividends and distributions are reinvested and included in the performance.  The S&P 500 index quoted above does not include dividends within the performance.  If a holding within our portfolio does pay a dividend or other income, it is reinvested, so our performance does include dividends.  This report has been prepared from data believed reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness. Total return and principal value will vary depending upon the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage commissions, reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or fund charges. This information is provided to you in combined form, solely for your convenience and ease of review and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. In order to verify that all account values and transactions are accurate, we encourage you to compare the information provided in our statement with the statement you receive directly from your custodian. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

Summit Financial Consulting LLC

43409 Schoenherr Road, Sterling Heights, MI 48313
Phone: 586-226-2100 Fax: 586-226-3584 E-mail: info@summitfc.net
Securities offered through Gradient Securities, LLC (Arden Hills, MN (866)991-1539) Member FINRA/SIPC
Summit Financial Consulting LLC is independent and is not an affiliate of Gradient Securities, LLC. Investment advisory
services offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of Michigan.

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February 2019 – Market Commentary

February 2019 – Market Commentary

Disclaimer:  These are the views of Summit Financial Consulting and should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. 

Update
If you would like us to prepare your taxes this year let us know! We are offering discounted rates to all of our financial planning clients.  We also now offer quotes on Auto Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Umbrella Policies, RV/Boat/Snowmobile Insurance, Workman’s comp, and business liability policies.  Give us a call or shoot us an email today because we might be able to save you some money! 
Phone: 
(586) 226-2100
Email: info@summitfc.net

MARKET COMMENTARY
January brought cold temperatures, but the stock market heated up a bit.  Within our TD Ameritrade in-house managed portfolios, we purchased stocks in late December after most of the market turmoil had already occurred.  We sold some of those positions in January and early February for a profit while we wait to see if the recent rebound is sustainable.

We receive an indicator every day from one of our independent research firms that tells us whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.  It ranges from 0 all the way up to 36.  0 is the best buying opportunity and 36 is the best selling opportunity.  We bought in December when the indicator was at 0.  In the past couple weeks, we’ve been selling some holdings because the indicator is now at 36, the most overbought the indicator can get.

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January 2019 – Market Commentary

January 2019 – Market Commentary

Disclaimer:  These are the views of Summit Financial Consulting and should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. 

SANTA CLAUS RALLY? YEAR-END MARKET COMMENTARY
Investors were hoping for what many people call a Santa Claus rally to end the year.  Since 1929, the market has been positive in December 72% of the time, and those numbers improve if you look at the last 10 and 20 years (Source:  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225368-santa-real-monthly-seasonality-djia)

Unfortunately, this turned out to be a record-breaking year, but not in the way we were all hoping.  In the month of December the S&P 500 lost 9%, the DOW lost 8.7%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index lost 12%.  Many investors take note of the high point, and from the high point to the low point the S&P 500 dropped about 20%.

Now that 2018 has come to a close, we can also discuss the year end numbers. The Russell 2000, which is the top small-cap stocks in the US, lost 12.1% for the year. The S&P 500 lost 6.2% for the year, and the DOW lost 5.6%.  This was the worst year for stocks since 2008 and only the 2nd time the DOW and S&P 500 fell in the past decade.  Source:  https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/31/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

Despite all of this volatility in 2018, our in-house managed accounts at TD Ameritrade invested in the Income, Conservative, Moderate, and even our Aggressive portfolios were UP for the year.  We did give back gains in December but were able to keep our head above water in these accounts because we moved a portion of the accounts to safety back in September before this market downturn started.

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Contact Us

Phone: 586-226-2100
Fax: 586-226-3584
info@summitfc.net

Location

We are located at:
43409 Schoenherr Road
Sterling Heights, MI 48313
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Summit Financial

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Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, a MI registered investment advisor. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC.  Summit Financial Consulting, LLC and its representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Summit Financial Consulting, LLC is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.