Interest Rate Alert
Interest rates are the lowest they’ve been in three years. If you have good credit you can get a 30-year mortgage for less than 4% and a 15-year mortgage for just over 3%. This is also a great opportunity to refinance a home mortgage or auto loan (any debt really). You don’t need to take money out of your house, but your payments could still go way down. If you’re in the market to purchase or refinance, let us know and we can help you with the process.
Auto and Homeowners Insurance
Just a reminder that we offer independent quotes on Auto Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Umbrella Policies, RV/Boat/Snowmobile Insurance, Workman’s comp, and business liability policies. Give us a call because we might be able to save you some money! info@summitfc.net or (586) 226-2100.
MARKET COMMENTARY — Trade War Becomes Currency War
The market dropped in May but rebounded in June and July. August is off to an alarming start because of new complications in the trade war between the United States and China. On July 31st, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese were approaching trade negotiations with a new tactic: Slow down. They wanted to appear to be willing to negotiate but insiders revealed that the Chinese now believe the US economy is slowing while the Chinese economy has already bottomed, so their negotiating power will increase in time. They also believe there is a chance a Democratic candidate will be elected in 2020 who may not be as confrontational as President Trump while negotiating (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-progress-in-trade-talks-is-partly-a-result-of-chinas-new-tactic-to-wait-1156457495).
President Trump did not enjoy the report, and quickly reacted with a new set of tariffs. The previous tariffs were carefully crafted to avoid pinching the overall economy. The new tariffs impose a tax on nearly all $540 Billion of Chinese goods that come into the US in a year (Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/02/us/trump-china-trade-war-tariffs.html). In response, China weakened their currency and has suspended all purchases of US agricultural products.
What does this mean for your portfolios: The good news is that we were prepared for market turmoil within our managed TD Ameritrade portfolios. We encourage you log in to TD Ameritrade to see your own performance, but just in a few weeks the S&P 500 lost 6.24%, while our in-house managed portfolios were positive across the board during that time period. We cannot predict politics. We do however pay for independent research that tells us what the most likely scenario for the market will be over the intermediate and longer term. We do not always get it right, but we do try to reduce risk when we see signs of danger.
Here’s a quote from our June Market Commentary report: “Our best research is saying that the market should be sluggish this summer overall because of the trade disputes and the positive effects of last year’s tax cuts wearing off, but there’s a decent chance that the market will pick up in the fall.” This is still our position. We will continue to monitor corporate profits and see if the economy is going to continue slowing from that perspective. Our best research is saying August and even September may be rocky, but we’ll be on guard to find investments that are “on-sale” whenever we can. We’re hopeful that everything will rebound in the fall.
We will let you know if there is a situation which calls for immediate attention. If you have any questions about taxes, your investment portfolio, our 401(k) recommendation service, or anything else in general, please give our office a call at (586) 226-2100. If you have a friend, family member, or co-worker that would like to learn more about our process, please let us know.
Also, feel free to forward this commentary to someone you know that may find it useful. If they would like to be added to our commentary, please send us an e-mail at info@summitfc.net. If you have had any changes to your income, your job, your family, your health insurance, your risk tolerance, or your overall financial situation, please give us a call so we can discuss it.
Thank you for your confidence and referrals!
Bob, Ken, and Jim
Summit Financial Consulting
Interesting Points
Since the federal government began tracking data in 1895, the 12-month period ending on April 30, 2019, was the wettest on record for the lower 48 states. Source: -NCEI, June 6, 2019
In every case going back to 1971, when the Fed began a new easing cycle while the economy was expanding, stocks went up three months, six months, nine months and 12 months later. No exceptions. Source: -Forbes, July 15, 2019
There are now 1.2 million more job openings in the U.S. than there are unemployed Americans. Source: -Associated Press, May 7, 2019
The dollar volume of homes purchased by foreign buyers from April 2018 through March of 2019 dropped 36%. Foreigners bought 183,100 properties down from 266,800 in the previous period. Source: -CNBC, July 17, 2019
Centenarians, those living to (or beyond) the age of 100, now number 82,000 up from 50,000 in 2002. Those 100-plus are America’s second-fastest growing age group, just after those 85 and older. Source: -WSJ, May 20, 2019
Today, coffee is selling at $0.89 per pound, which is down from a peak of $2.20 a pound in 2015. The National Coffee Association estimates that the cost of producing one pound of coffee is $1.93. Source: -NumLock News, June 13, 2019
Americans will spend more time on their mobile devices than watching TV this year for the first time ever. The average adult will spend 3 hours 43 minutes a day on a mobile device compared to 3 hours and 35 minutes watching TV. Source: -MarketWatch, June 6, 2019
Of the 20 times stocks have rallied in the first six months of the year by more than 10%, the S&P 500 has gone on to average a return of 7.5% in the final six months. Source: -CNBC, July 5, 2019
Disclosures regarding our performance reporting: Because some clients are in the 10% tax bracket and others are in the 37% Federal tax bracket, we have decided to report performance before taxes. If you have a non-qualified account, please feel free to contact us to determine your individualized rate of return after tax. All of Summit’s performance is after our 1.25% advisory fee that is deducted monthly. Your fees may be higher or lower depending upon the amount of assets invested with our firm. Feel free to contact us to receive online access so you can see your personalized rate of return. The Aggregate bond index we use is ticker: AGG. All dividends and distributions are reinvested and included in the performance. The S&P 500 index quoted above does not include dividends within the performance. If a holding within our portfolio does pay a dividend or other income, it is reinvested, so our performance does include dividends. This report has been prepared from data believed reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness. Total return and principal value will vary depending upon the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage commissions, reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or fund charges. This information is provided to you in combined form, solely for your convenience and ease of review and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. In order to verify that all account values and transactions are accurate, we encourage you to compare the information provided in our statement with the statement you receive directly from your custodian. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Summit Financial Consulting LLC
43409 Schoenherr Road, Sterling Heights, MI 48313
Phone: 586-226-2100 Fax: 586-226-3584 E-mail: info@summitfc.net
Securities offered through Gradient Securities, LLC (Arden Hills, MN (866)991-1539) Member FINRA/SIPC
Summit Financial Consulting LLC is independent and is not an affiliate of Gradient Securities, LLC. Investment advisory
services offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of Michigan.
