Market Commentary for April 2026

At the close of the 1st Quarter of 2026, the S&P 500 is down year to date about 4.63%, and the Nasdaq is down 7.08% (1, 2). We are very happy with the performance of our actively managed portfolios comparatively, and would encourage you to review your statements to see both year to date and monthly performance.

The Iran skirmish in June of 2025 lasted 12 days as the United States attacked Iran Nuclear facilities (3). The market bounced back with no problem after that skirmish (1).

As we enter day 32 of the current conflict, we are continuing to gather information before making a prediction on how long it will take the stock market to recover this time around. While past performance cannot predict future performance, in our opinion, the stock market is normally positive between March 15th and May 1st, but especially with a war going on, anything is possible.

Oil Prices, Inflation, and Federal Reserve Policy

In mid-February, Oil was around $60 per barrel but has since spiked 67% to over $100 per barrel (4). In our opinion, if Oil prices rapidly decrease from here, then inflation should spike (data is on a lag) and then drop correspondingly which can potentially lead to more Fed rate cuts before year end.

However, if Oil prices do not drop quickly, in our opinion that could cause inflation to remain high, which may delay the planned Federal Reserve rate cuts. The stock market most likely would be disappointed by that scenario.

Three Potential Positive Factors Through Mid-May

On the bright side potentially, there are three potential factors that can lead the stock market to get out of the hole sooner rather than later, especially between now and mid-May.

First, the Fed has cut interest rates over the past year already, which may improve the economy, especially if the 10 Year US Government rate decreases in tandem. Since mortgage rates, credit cards, and many business loans are affected by interest rates, we'll be keeping a close eye on it (5).

Second, the Republicans have control of the Senate and House of Representatives. The White House has mentioned that they will aim financially to help win the mid-term elections in November (6). In our opinion, the administration may try to pull levers to improve the economy before the election.

Third, because of the tax legislation passed in 2025, many people are expecting to receive larger than normal tax refunds. People who work overtime, receive tips, deduct new auto loan interest, have high property taxes (new quadrupled SALT deduction limit) and people on Social Security may be pleasantly surprised by their tax refunds (7).

All these factors could lead to a positive stock market for the rest of the year.

Mid-Term Elections and Market Volatility

Past performance cannot predict future performance, but in our opinion, this summer/fall may have increased volatility. Generally speaking, the stock market does not like uncertainty. Who will have control of the House and Senate will be a big question market this fall, and it may cause some uncertainty for investors.

Outlook for 2026

As we mentioned in our market commentary last month, we believe this year has the potential to have positive stock market performance, but it will likely have plenty of volatility. Absolutely anything is possible, so please continue to read our market commentaries, and know that we are doing everything we can to monitor and adjust when prudent.

Please check out our YouTube channel to get more frequent and more thorough updates from us: www.Youtube.com/@SummitfinancialconsultingLLC

Schedule Your Portfolio Review

There is a lot going on in the world and it's a great time to touch base. If we haven't spoken in a while and you would like to go over your numbers, or you've had any changes to your family, finances, employer/job, or risk tolerance, please contact us at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a review meeting.

We would love to meet with you over the phone, Zoom, or face to face to strategize.

Sincerely,

Ken Wink

with contributions by Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, CFP® and James Baldwin

Notes & Disclaimer: Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, an SEC registered investment advisory firm. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisory Firm Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Life/Annuity Insurance products and services offered by the individual insurance agent. Health insurance is offered through Summit Health Services, LLC and Property/Casualty (P&C) Insurance is offered through Summit Insurance Services, LLC and our local P&C agency partners. Please update Summit Financial Consulting LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Representatives of Summit Financial Consulting LLC offer tax preparation services through Summit Tax Services. Summit Tax Services is a DBA of Heemer Klein & Company and they are owned and operated independently.