Stock Market Commentary June 2026
In May, the Iran conflict and oil prices were a concern, but the stock market had a positive month despite that (1).
On May 27th, despite the fragile ceasefire in place, the US carried out new "Defensive Strikes" on an Iranian military site which potentially was a threat to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard says it launched an attack on an "American Airbase" and warns of more decisive action should US aggression continue (2).
Iran Tensions Persist Despite Market Resilience
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Iran is circumventing US sanctions by transporting oil to China via ship-to-ship transfers in what some describe as "nautical no-man's land."
The ships are very old tankers that help obscure their origin. This helps to infuse Iran with billions of dollars (3). In our opinion, Iran is stubborn and will not easily give up their nuclear power ambitions. We may be in for a long stalemate, but in any case, we'll continue to monitor the situation.
Inflation Remains Above Federal Reserve Target
On May 28th, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), came in at 3.3%, which is higher than the Fed's target of 2% (4). This implies the Fed could be looking to increase rates rather than decrease rates. Lower rates can potentially lead to economic growth because the cost of borrowing money typically decreases.
Oil prices have remained stubbornly high as the Iran conflict wears on with prices well over $90 per barrel (5). In our opinion, the higher oil prices are, the more likely inflation will remain a concern for both the Fed and the average American.
If the conflict does not end soon, it could cause additional volatility for the stock market. We will continue to monitor the situation and make adjustments to our portfolios accordingly.
For now, in our opinion the stock market is digesting the news and taking it in stride. We partially reduced risk in our actively managed portfolios and hope to see a dip in the market where we can deploy the cash on the sidelines soon.
Election Uncertainty May Drive Summer and Fall Volatility
Past performance cannot predict future performance, but in our opinion, this summer/fall may have increased volatility. Generally speaking, the stock market does not like uncertainty. Who will have control of the House and Senate will be a big question mark this fall, and it may cause some uncertainty for investors.
As we mentioned in our market commentary for March, we believe this year has the potential to have positive stock market performance, but it will likely have plenty of volatility. In our opinion, absolutely anything is possible, so please continue to read our market commentaries, and know that we are doing everything we can to monitor and adjust when prudent. Please check out our YouTube channel to get more frequent and more thorough updates from us: www.Youtube.com/@SummitfinancialconsultingLLC
Schedule Your Portfolio Review
There is a lot going on in the world and it's a great time to touch base. If we haven't spoken in a while and you would like to go over your numbers, or you've had any changes to your family, finances, employer/job, or risk tolerance, please contact us at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a review meeting.
We would love to meet with you over the phone, Zoom, or face to face to strategize.
Sincerely,
Robert L. Wink, Kenneth R. Wink, James D. Wink, Zachary A. Bachner, CFP®, James C. Baldwin, and Daniel Ladzinski
Disclaimer: Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, an SEC registered investment advisory firm. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisory Firm Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Life/Annuity Insurance products and services offered by the individual insurance agent. Health insurance is offered through Summit Health Services, LLC and Property/Casualty (P&C) Insurance is offered through Summit Insurance Services, LLC and our local P&C agency partners. Please update Summit Financial Consulting LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Representatives of Summit Financial Consulting LLC offer tax preparation services through Summit Tax Services. Summit Tax Services is a DBA of Heemer Klein & Company and they are owned and operated independently.
Ken Wink
Kenneth “Ken” Wink is the Co-Founder and Chief Compliance Officer of Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. With over 22 years of experience in the financial services industry, he is deeply knowledgeable and passionate about explaining complex financial concepts in understandable terms. Ken’s passion for simplifying complex financial concepts began early. While still in high school, he honed his skills by assisting classmates with their tax returns. This led him to pursue a B.A. in Finance at Michigan State University, graduating with honors. He further bolstered his qualifications by obtaining numerous financial licenses, including Series 6, 7, 63, and 65, along with Life, Health, and Accident licenses. Ken believes that everyone deserves to make informed financial decisions without feeling overwhelmed or intimidated. That’s why he writes articles that break down complex concepts into understandable terms, empowering you to navigate your financial future with confidence.