Stock Market Commentary November 2022
NOTE ABOUT IRA TO ROTH IRA CONVERSIONS:
Each year, we recommend that our clients consider converting money from an IRA to a Roth IRA. Because of our national debt, we believe that taxes will need to be raised in the future, and tax brackets will correspondingly be much worse. If you are in the 12% tax bracket, we especially recommend that you consider converting whatever you can afford. Please give us a call if you have any questions or if you’d like help putting a tax plan together.
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Could Mid-Term Elections Contribute to a Year-End Recovery?
October was a bright spot as the stock market recovered some losses from the previous months. We now turn our eyes to a jam-packed economic calendar. We have the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on November 1st, midterm elections on November 8th, and then the latest inflation number release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on November 10th.
These three events will almost definitely swing the market wildly. We believe that cumulatively these events will cause a short-term drop in the market, and we plan to profit from that drop by betting against the market with inverse funds until we believe the market has bottomed in the short term. Of course, if we are wrong, we’ll very likely change our positioning.
Election Could Determine Year-End Stock Performance
Currently, Democrats control the House, Senate, and White House. Since 1945, the best outcome for the stock market has been when we have a split congress. Historically, investors prefer shared power. As you can see from the table below, the best outcome on average for the stock market longer term has been a Democrat in the White House but balanced by Republicans in Congress.
Daily Managed Portfolios
As you know, we have many tools in our toolbox, including purchasing investments that profit when the stock market goes down. This is called hedging. There is still a chance the stock market will take another trip down before it ultimately heads higher again later this year or next year. Our ultimate goal is to make money, so we’re using what we believe to be all the appropriate tools in our toolbox to accomplish that goal potentially. This is why we manage our active portfolios daily.
We Are Here to Help
We’d love to have a review meeting with you to discuss investments, retirement planning, college planning for kids or grandkids, tax preparation, health insurance, including Medicare supplemental and prescription drug plans, and various other financial planning topics. Please contact our office at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a meeting today!
Please contact us immediately if you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, marital status, 401K options, address, or other financial changes. We hope you and your family have a fantastic, safe, and healthy start to the fall!
Kindest regards,
Bob, Ken, Jim, Zach, and James
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Notes & Disclaimer: Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. All historical returns data should be considered hypothetical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Note: Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually. Please consult Summit Financial Consulting for a copy of this document should you need an additional copy. All guarantees are subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. Back testing is more heavily scrutinized than any other type of investment analysis because it can be updated to take advantage of past data. The algorithms and trading signals that we receive from the Sherman Group, LLC were created using back testing with the goal of creating a sustainable research process. We have reviewed data from the entire 20 year period which was mostly back tested, and have also personally reviewed the live data for the past 5 years and feel comfortable with it, but we encourage you to meet with us and ask questions so you are fully informed on what we plan to do with your investment assets at TD Ameritrade. It is important to look at fees, taxable repercussions, and trading frequency when looking at a rate of return number. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.
Ken Wink
Kenneth “Ken” Wink is the Co-Founder and Chief Compliance Officer of Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. With over 22 years of experience in the financial services industry, he is deeply knowledgeable and passionate about explaining complex financial concepts in understandable terms. Ken’s passion for simplifying complex financial concepts began early. While still in high school, he honed his skills by assisting classmates with their tax returns. This led him to pursue a B.A. in Finance at Michigan State University, graduating with honors. He further bolstered his qualifications by obtaining numerous financial licenses, including Series 6, 7, 63, and 65, along with Life, Health, and Accident licenses. Ken believes that everyone deserves to make informed financial decisions without feeling overwhelmed or intimidated. That’s why he writes articles that break down complex concepts into understandable terms, empowering you to navigate your financial future with confidence.