How the Markets are Performing After the Presidential Election
After two months in a row of losses for the S&P 500 and DOW in September and October, election day in November immediately created a nice relief rally that we participated in at TD Ameritrade (Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC). We encourage you to meet with us for a review meeting to discuss your individual performance.
We mentioned in our last market commentary that while past performance does not necessarily predict future performance, during presidential election years in the past 70 years, on average the stock market has rallied to end the year after the election is over (Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmckenna/2020/08/18/heres-how-the-stock-market-has-performed-before-during-and-after-presidential-elections/?sh=5393bc7e4f86). There is a good chance that Congress will create a new stimulus program before year-end that may also help the stock market have a positive end to the year in December. There are also promising results from multiple vaccine trials that is encouraging the markets, despite the delay of 3-6 months before most people would have access to it.
How could the senate race affect the market?
We’re still laser-focused on the Senate runoff in Georgia, as that will ultimately determine the balance of power in Congress. The stock market usually does not like uncertainty. If the House is controlled by the Democrats and the Senate is controlled by Republicans, there’s a good chance they’ll argue and not accomplish too much. We are currently in a low tax environment historically speaking, so no change when it comes to tax policy is considered positive by most stock market participants. Bottom line: We plan to do everything in our power to protect and grow your money in 2020, despite the coronavirus and the election. By reviewing your portfolio holdings at TD Ameritrade daily, we believe we have the potential to accomplish that goal.
If you have any questions about taxes, your individual investment portfolio, our 401(k) recommendation service, or anything else in general, please give our office a call at (586) 226-2100. Please feel free to forward this commentary to a friend, family member, or co-worker. If they would like to receive this commentary in the future, please send us an e-mail at email@example.com at your earliest convenience. If you have had any changes to your income, job, family, health insurance, risk tolerance, or your overall financial situation, please give us a call so we can discuss it.
Thank you for your confidence and referrals!
Bob Wink, Ken Wink, Jim Wink and Zach Bachner
The average receipt at CVS is 2.5 feet long. Source: -Green America
About 26% of U.S. adults now get their news from YouTube. Source: -Pew Research, September 28, 2020
“It’s so hard to forget pain, but it’s even harder to remember sweetness. We have no scar to show for happiness.” -Chuck Palahniuk
Apple sold up to 2 million iPhone 12 units in the first 24 hours after release, up from 800,000 units of the Apple iPhone 11. Source: -CNBC, October 20, 2020
In a typical year, 3.6 million eviction cases are filed. However, if present conditions persist and there is not a new round of federal relief, as many as 40 million people could be at risk of eviction in the coming months. Source: -Reuters, October 31, 2020
A report by the House Ways & Means Committee shows that Americans pay on average nearly four times more for prescription drugs than 11 economically similar countries. The United States could save $49 billion annually on Medicare Part D alone by pricing drugs similarly to the other countries studied. Source: -Becker’s Hospital Review, September 24, 2019
Voters who back a losing presidential candidate can experience as much as a 30% temporary reduction in all-around life satisfaction following the election. That’s a larger drop in happiness than Boston residents experienced following the Boston Marathon bombing. Source: -The Atlantic, November 5, 2020
Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, a MI registered investment advisor. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC.
Disclosures regarding our performance reporting: Because some clients are in the 10% tax bracket and others are in the 37% Federal tax bracket, we have decided to report performance before taxes. If you have a non-qualified account, please feel free to contact us to determine your individualized rate of return after tax. All of Summit’s performance is after our 1.25% advisory fee that is deducted monthly. Your fees may be higher or lower depending upon the amount of assets invested with our firm. Feel free to contact us to receive online access so you can see your personalized rate of return. The Aggregate bond index we use is ticker AGG, and all dividends and distributions earned are reinvested and included in the performance numbers. The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones index quoted above does not include dividends within the performance. If a holding within our portfolio does pay a dividend or other income, it is reinvested, so our performance does include dividends. This report has been prepared from data believed reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness. Total return and principal value will vary depending upon the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage commissions, reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or fund charges and because of this, especially if you are a brand new client that was invested in the middle of the month or if you made a deposit or withdrawal in the month, adviser’s clients may have had materially different results from the results portrayed in the performance numbers disclosed. This information is provided to you in combined form, solely for your convenience and ease of review and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. In order to verify that all account values and transactions are accurate, we encourage you to compare the information provided in our statement with the statement you receive directly from your custodian. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. The performance data in this report represents past performance and does not guarantee or imply future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted in this report. Because we use bond funds and inverse funds as hedges, there will be months where we underperform the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 index, but also months where we will outperform. We do our best to manage stock market volatility, but anything is certainly possible.
The returns are calculated using a true daily time-weighted rate of return (“TWRR” as a primary performance return methodology). TWRR is the CFA Institutes Global Investment Performance Standards (“GIPS”) required calculation for managed accounts. TWRR provides a measure of how an account was managed regardless of the dollar value and is unaffected by external cash flows. TWRR is required in GIPS Guidelines for managed accounts for two primary reasons:
- Impact of external flows on TWRR: Since an advisor typically does not control the timing or magnitude of investor cash flows, TWRR is deemed appropriate as it isolates performance regardless of the portfolio/account’s dollar value and external flows.
- Comparison across portfolios and benchmarks: TWRR can be used to directly compare performance with other portfolio/accounts and is an appropriate metric to use when comparing portfolio/account performance to benchmarks.
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