Stock Market Commentary February 2024

Get Ready for Tax Season: When to Expect Tax Documents and Tax Prep Services

• If you haven’t already, you will most likely receive a packet of 1099’s from both TD Ameritrade and Charles Schwab, most likely in the last week of February or the first week of March at the latest. We always recommend that you wait until March 15th or later to file your tax return just in case a tax document is updated.  
• Our partnership with the professionals at Heemer Klein provides our clients with a seamless tax preparation experience. Give our tax team a call today at (586) 459-5340 if you’d be interested in learning more about how we can help.  

2023 IRA and Roth IRA Contributions
As a reminder and if you are eligible, the deadline to make 2023 tax year contributions into a Traditional or Roth IRA is April 15th. This window of time can be great for anyone looking to max out any remaining contributions from last year or for those who would like to open an account and start with a 2023 lump sum contribution. This period can also be used for making 2023 contributions into a Health Savings Account if you are enrolled in a High Deductible Health Plan. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you are interested so we may discuss the benefits of these options, your eligibility, or the amount of contributions available to you.  

Navigating the New: Adapting to Schwab After the TD Ameritrade Transition

The transition from TD Ameritrade to Schwab has been completed and clients as well as our staff have had to make some adjustments, as well as learn about new features. 

• You have the option to contribute money directly to Schwab through the app, but you have to be careful, especially if you’re contributing to an IRA or Roth IRA because you might select the incorrect year. 
• If you contribute money on your own directly to Schwab, please let us know because we are not always notified. 
• Schwab offers some options that TD Ameritrade did not in terms of personalizing your statement delivery. For instance, if no trades were placed in a month, you have the option of not receiving a statement that month. In addition, quarterly statements instead of monthly statements are an option. 
• There is also an option to add more details to your statements. If you would like to change your preferences, please let us know. 

Economic Indicators Are Mixed

One of our short-term indicators turned from positive to negative on January 29th, 2024 and as a result, we reduced risk inside our actively managed portfolios (Source: https://www.shermanportfolios.com/indicators). In our opinion, the market is very overbought right now according to a number of different indicators, so there is a decent chance that we see a market pullback in February.

Longer-Term Optimism

Longer term, four pieces of evidence are currently making us optimistic that the next 9 months until the election have the potential to be good for stocks overall despite some potential short-term bumps in the road.

• First, every President that is running for reelection typically wants to get reelected, so they make moves that potentially “window dress” the economy and stock market before the election (please check out the chart in the next section).
• Second, in late April of 2023, one of our most important longer-term indicators shifted from negative to positive. It had been negative since the first quarter of 2022 when we saw the bulk of our previous market volatility, then it flipped positive to participate in the recovery during 2023. It remains positive at this time, so we remain optimistic about future performance (Source: https://www.shermanportfolios.com/indicators).  
• Third, our intermediate-term indicators are still positive, so three of our four preferred indicators are currently positive.
• Lastly, while past performance cannot predict future performance, the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has turned and has been heading up rather than down. This is a longer-term trendline and in the past, it has had some success identifying a change in trend (Source:  https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/two-more-bullish-pieces-of-evidence/). 

We had a different indicator a few months back to declare that there is a chance we’ll have a recession within the next year (inverted Yield Curve, Source: https://fortune.com/recommends/investing/the-inverted-yield-curve-recession/). We’re hoping that recent improvements in the overall economy, inflation data, and the housing market, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may be lowered in 2024, will provide some stability moving forward. 

Presidential Election Season

When a President has won twice, they are typically most concerned about their legacy, and since they don’t have to face the voters again, they may not try to window-dress the economy as much.  However, when a sitting President prepares for re-election, they typically want to do everything they can to impress the voters, including window-dressing the economy. While past performance cannot predict future performance, as you can see in the past 10 elections, this scenario has been beneficial for the stock market:  

Source: macrotrends

Speak With a Trusted Advisor

We’d love to have a review meeting with you to discuss investments, retirement planning, college planning for kids or grandkids, tax preparation, health insurance including Medicare supplemental and prescription drug plans, and a variety of other financial planning topics. Please contact our office at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a meeting today! 

If you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, marriage status, a new birth in the family, 401K options, address, risk tolerance, or any other financial changes, please contact us right away.

Sincerely,

Kenneth Wink

with contributions from Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, and James Baldwin

Ken Wink is the Co-Founder and Chief Compliance Officer of Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. With over two decades of experience in the financial services industry, he is deeply knowledgeable and passionate about explaining complex financial concepts in understandable terms. Ken writes articles geared towards conveying financial topics in clear, straightforward language, making them accessible to everyday people.

Notes & Disclaimer: Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. All historical returns data should be considered hypothetical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Note: Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually. Please consult Summit Financial Consulting for a copy of this document should you need an additional copy. All guarantees are subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. Back testing is more heavily scrutinized than any other type of investment analysis because it can be updated to take advantage of past data. The algorithms and trading signals that we receive from the Sherman Group, LLC were created using back testing with the goal of creating a sustainable research process. We have reviewed data from the entire 20 year period which was mostly back tested, and have also personally reviewed the live data for the past 5 years and feel comfortable with it, but we encourage you to meet with us and ask questions so you are fully informed on what we plan to do with your investment assets at Charles Schwab. It is important to look at fees, taxable repercussions, and trading frequency when looking at a rate of return number. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.