Stock Market Commentary April 2025

Apr 2, 2025 | Blog

Financial advisor reviewing market data on a computer screen, symbolizing strategic portfolio analysis during economic uncertainty in 2025.

Both February and March were negative which led to a 10% loss for the S&P 500. We would be happy to discuss your personal performance versus the indexes at any time to compare/contrast it, so feel free to give us a call to schedule a review meeting.

While being down year to date is not what anyone was hoping for, we’re still cautiously optimistic that 2025 will end the year positive based upon the data we’ve been sharing in the past few market commentaries, which you can review at either of the links within the below for our blog or YouTube.  

 

Fiscal Policy, Tariffs, and Long-Term Strategy

The current administration has outlined the following primary objectives for its recent policy measures:

  • Reduce the national debt

  • Enhance border security

  • Combat drug smuggling

  • Promote U.S. job creation by limiting imported goods

 

In our opinion, if he successfully lowers our national debt, then interest rates will likely decline which would reduce the interest paid on credit cards, mortgages, business loans, auto loans, student loans and US Government bonds.  Reducing interest rates should help the economy.  

His two primary tools have been tariffs (which are essentially tax revenue) and government spending cuts. Our opinion is that the current administration’s negotiating style with foreign nations is unpredictable and that sometimes creates volatility for businesses, and stock markets.

Predicting the future is nearly impossible, but our best estimate is that cutting government spending and reducing our national debt will be good for the United States in the long run, but in the short run, may continue to provide volatility from month to month as negotiating deadlines are applied and removed.

 

Tariffs and the Real Economy

For a steel factory in Pittsburg, they could in theory add a third shift easily and start making more Steel to replace Canadian imports which spurs the local economy and housing market.

But it typically takes years to start making new car parts in Metro Detroit, so the tariff strategy may take years to fully benefit the US economy.

We believe the silver lining to every tariff is that it is tax revenue so it could potentially reduce our national debt, which ourselves, children and grandchildren may be grateful for. In the meantime, the uncertainty is challenging and it may increase inflation as well. 

 

Portfolio Management in Uncertain Markets

All of that being said, we do have economic and stock market indicators that are flashing “buy the dip”, so we are not recommending a move to cash yet. Please keep in mind that we offer daily managed portfolios, and we would be happy to discuss them with you.

If our research and charting indicators say that lowering risk is prudent, we’ll automatically reduce risk.     

 

Speak With a Trusted Advisor

If we haven’t spoken in a while, or you’ve had any changes to your family or finances, please contact us right away at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a review meeting. We would love to meet with you over the phone, via Zoom, or face-to-face to strategize.

Sincerely,

Kenneth Wink

with contributions from Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner,  James Baldwin, and Daniel Ladzinski

Ken Wink is the Co-Founder and Chief Compliance Officer of Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. With over two decades of experience in the financial services industry, he is deeply knowledgeable and passionate about explaining complex financial concepts in understandable terms. Ken writes articles geared towards conveying financial topics in clear, straightforward language, making them accessible to everyday people.

Sources:

 

Expanded Resources for Summit Clients: 

At Summit Financial Consulting, we’ve spent years developing high-quality financial planning resources to help guide and educate our clients.

We’re excited to share that this content is now conveniently available in two dedicated locations.

  • First, explore our blog where you’ll find timely articles on a wide range of topics, such as the SECURE Act 2.0, responsible credit card use, tariffs, preparing financially for parenthood, and the pros and cons of side hustles, along with hundreds of other insightful posts designed to support your financial goals.
  • Next, we invite you to visit and subscribe to our YouTube channel. There, you can watch a diverse selection of videos covering practical tips like the five steps to budgeting, two-minute car buying advice, cybersecurity best practices, and HSA optimization strategies.
  • These resources are here to support your financial journey, whether you’re seeking foundational education or deeper insights into current market dynamics.

 

Notes & Disclaimer:  Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, an SEC registered investment advisory firm.  Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisory Firm Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Life/Annuity Insurance products and services offered by the individual insurance agent. Health insurance is offered through Summit Health Services, LLC and Property/Casualty (P&C) Insurance is offered through Summit Insurance Services, LLC and our local P&C agency partners. Please update Summit Financial Consulting LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually, but additional copies are available upon request. Investing involves risk, including the risk of a total loss. Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Dividends are not included in index returns. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Representatives of Summit Financial Consulting LLC offer tax preparation services through Summit Tax Services. Summit Tax Services is a DBA of Heemer Klein & Company and they are owned and operated independently.