Update on TD Ameritrade to Charles Schwab Conversion
The transition finally occurred this month! Please note you will receive a statement from TD Ameritrade this month showing a zero balance with a transfer out, and then you’ll see a Schwab statement showing a transfer in. Through Schwab, you will continue to have online access, an app for your phone or tablet, and the same relationship with us. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact us.
Debt Ceiling Fallout and 4th Quarter Outlook
While past performance cannot predict future performance, historically, we are getting close to the seasonally strongest period of the year. We mentioned last month that September can sometimes be bearish, and it most certainly was, mostly because of the Debt Ceiling debate and the Federal Reserve’s outlook for interest rates. However, historically, on average, the 4th quarter is something investors don’t want to miss.
Historical Perspective on Market Trends
A bear market lasts 15 months on average. We are currently in month 21, which is encouraging. The stock markets were down big in 2022, but dating back to 1928, the market has had back-to-back negative years only four times in almost 95 years, so the odds say we’re due for a rebound in 2023. Anything is possible, of course, despite the odds, which is why we monitor the portfolios daily.
Proactive Strategies Amidst Market Downturn
Our updated research platform told us to sell stock funds and buy an inverse (which profits when the market drops) in August to reduce risk, which was a good thing. We encourage you to look at your own statements for performance and call us if you’d like to discuss it.
For the month of September, most clients will see we were down, but not nearly as much as the market. As of September 27th, this month, the S&P 500 was negative 5.2%, the Nasdaq was down 6.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.4%, and even bonds (Ticker AGG) lost 3.3%.
Road Ahead: Market Projections Post Debt Ceiling Fallout
Unless a debt default or prolonged government shutdown occurs, there is a high probability that the market will bounce from here overall until year-end, barring something unforeseen. In the long term, three pieces of evidence are currently making us optimistic that the next 14 months until the election have the potential to be good for stocks overall despite some potential short-term bumps in the road.
First, every President wants to get re-elected, so they make moves that potentially “window dress” the economy and stock market before the election. Second, one of our most important longer-term indicators shifted from negative to positive in late April. It had been negative since the first quarter of 2022, so it was negative for quite a while. While past performance cannot predict future performance, this type of indicator switch has said brighter days may lie ahead for the stock market in the longer term. Finally, the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has turned and is now heading up rather than down. This is a longer-term trendline, and in the past, it has had some success identifying a change in trend.
Indicators of Economic Stability and Growth
We had a different indicator a few months back say there is a chance we’ll have a recession this year. We’re hoping that recent improvements in the overall economy, inflation data, and the housing market will provide some stability moving forward. Our new research handled the downtrend relatively well this month, in our opinion, but we’re doing our best not to focus on the short-term results because the research has the potential to work well in the long run. We encourage you to come by the office to review the new strategy with us in person or via Zoom.
Financial Planning and Review Meeting
We’d love to have a review meeting with you to discuss investments, retirement income planning, college planning for kids or grandkids, tax preparation, health insurance, including Medicare supplemental and prescription drug plans, and various other financial planning topics. Please contact our office at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a meeting today!
If you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, marriage status, 401K options, address, risk tolerance, or any other financial changes, please contact us right away. We hope you and your family are doing well!
Sincerely,
with contributions from Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, and James Baldwin
Notes & Disclaimer: Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually, but additional copies are available upon request. Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness.
Dividends are not included in index returns. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. All guarantees are subject to the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer-term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.