Update on TD Ameritrade
Since Charles Schwab announced the merger with TD Ameritrade on November 25, 2019, we have communicated to you the many stages of this process. We are approaching the final stage, where the transition of your account from TD Ameritrade to the Charles Schwab platform will occur. This will be completed by Tuesday, September 5, 2023.
Some clients have been asking us how we feel about this transition. We are absolutely thrilled that the two companies are combining because we have seen improvements at every turn when it comes to yields on money markets, investments we can trade for no cost, etc.
Within the next two weeks, you will receive a Key Information packet from TD Ameritrade outlining in detail the transition. This packet will be the official notification of your new 8-digit Schwab account number and will ask you to create a Schwab Alliance login ID and password. After the conversion, you will need to establish a new user ID to access your account information. They plan to send one packet for each of your accounts, because each account has a separate account number. We have been told that banking information, account history, taxes, statements, etc., will transfer seamlessly.
This transition will happen at no cost to you, and your fees will not change. This notice does not relate to your interaction with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, as nothing is changing other than who you receive your statements through. We will continue to manage your portfolio daily. You will continue to have online access, an app for your phone or tablet, and the same relationship with us. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact us.
Market Performance and Rebound Prospects for August and September
While past performance cannot predict future performance, historically, a bear market lasts 15 months on average. We are currently in month 19. The stock markets were down big in 2022, but dating back to 1928, the market has had back-to-back negative years only four times in almost 95 years, so the odds say we’re due for a rebound in 2023. Anything is possible, of course, despite the odds, which is why we monitor the portfolios daily.
Economic Concerns and Global Challenges
So far, the 2nd quarter corporate earnings season is causing some concerns among investors because of wage inflation, cost of goods inflation, and in some cases, decreasing demand.
A Taiwan-based chipmaker, TSMC, forecasts a 10% drop in sales in 2023 as the global demand for chips used in cars, cell phones, and servers is dropping. China seemed to be improving after they eliminated their Covid curbs late last year. Still, China recently reported that their economy only grew 0.8% quarter over quarter because of weakened demand at home and abroad. We’ll continue to monitor the situation to see if this is a short-term bump in the road or a cause for long time concern.
Optimism Amidst Short-term Market Volatility
For the major indexes, this was a positive month, and it was also a positive month for our portfolios using our updated research platform as of the date of this letter. Still, we encourage you to look at your own statements to see your individual performance. There is a chance the market goes sideways or even down in August and possibly even September after the strong gains in June and July, but longer term, there are four pieces of evidence that are currently making us optimistic that the next 16 months until the election have the potential to be good for stocks overall despite some potential short term bumps in the road.
Indicators and Trends for Long-term Prospects
First, every President wants to get re-elected, so they make moves that potentially “window dress” the economy and stock market before the election. Second, one of our most important longer-term indicators shifted from negative to positive in late April. It had been negative since the first quarter of 2022, so it was negative for quite a while (Source: https://www.shermanportfolios.com/indicators). While past performance cannot predict future performance, in the past, this type of indicator switch has said brighter days may lie ahead for the stock market in the longer term. Third, a shorter-term indicator from our new partnership with the Sherman Portfolios flipped from red to green in May. Finally, the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has turned and is now heading up rather than down. This is a longer-term trendline, and in the past, it has had some success identifying a change in trend.
Strategies for a Stable Financial Future
A few months back, we had a different indicator say there is a chance we’ll have a recession this year (inverted Yield Curve, Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/06/the-inverted-yield-curve-continues-to-flash-a-recession-warning/?sh=1325948b15ac). We’re hoping that recent improvements in the overall economy, inflation data, and the housing market will provide some stability moving forward. Our new research handled the uptrend relatively well this month, in our opinion, but we’re doing our best not to focus on the short-term results because the research has the potential to work well in the long run. We encourage you to come by the office to review the new strategy with us in person or via Zoom.
Financial Planning and Review Meeting
We’d love to have a review meeting with you to discuss investments, retirement income planning, college planning for kids or grandkids, tax preparation, health insurance, including Medicare supplemental and prescription drug plans, and a variety of other financial planning topics. Please contact our office at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a meeting today!
If you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, marriage status, 401K options, address, risk tolerance, or any other financial changes, please contact us right away. We hope you and your family are doing well!
Sincerely,
with contributions from Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, and James Baldwin
Notes & Disclaimer: Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. All historical returns data should be considered hypothetical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Note: Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually. Please consult Summit Financial Consulting for a copy of this document should you need an additional copy. All guarantees are subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. Back testing is more heavily scrutinized than any other type of investment analysis because it can be updated to take advantage of past data. The algorithms and trading signals that we receive from the Sherman Group, LLC were created using back testing with the goal of creating a sustainable research process. We have reviewed data from the entire 20 year period which was mostly back tested, and have also personally reviewed the live data for the past 5 years and feel comfortable with it, but we encourage you to meet with us and ask questions so you are fully informed on what we plan to do with your investment assets at TD Ameritrade. It is important to look at fees, taxable repercussions, and trading frequency when looking at a rate of return number. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.