TD Ameritrade Merger and Transition to Charles Schwab Platform
Since Charles Schwab announced the merger with TD Ameritrade on November 25, 2019, we have communicated to you the many stages of this process. We are approaching the final stage, where the transition of your account from TD Ameritrade to the Charles Schwab platform will occur. This will be completed by Tuesday, September 5, 2023.
Some clients have been asking us how we feel about this transition, and we are absolutely thrilled that the two companies are combining because we have seen improvements at every turn when it comes to yields on money markets, investments we can trade for no cost, etc. At the end of this month, you will receive an Account Transition Update from TD Ameritrade outlining in detail the transition. If you have any questions about the notice, please let us know. We have been told that banking information, account history, taxes, statements, etc., will transfer seamlessly.
This transition will happen at no cost to you, and your fees will not change. This notice does not relate to any interaction that you have with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, as nothing is changing other than who you receive your statements through. We will continue to manage your portfolio daily. Although a password reset may be required, you will continue to have online access, an app for your phone or tablet, and the same relationship with us. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact us.
Market Performance and Outlook
While past performance cannot predict future performance, historically, a bear market lasts 15 months on average. We are currently in month 18. The stock markets were down big in 2022, but dating back to 1928, the market has had back-to-back negative years only four times in almost 95 years, so the odds say we’re due for a rebound in 2023. Anything is possible, of course, despite the odds, which is why we monitor the portfolios daily.
For the indexes, this was a positive month, and it was also a positive month for our portfolios using our updated research platform. However, we encourage you to look at your own statements to see your individual performance. There is a chance the market goes sideways or even down in July, but longer term, there are five pieces of evidence that are making us optimistic that the next 17 months until the election have the potential to be good for stocks.
Five Considerations for Optimism in the Stock Market
- Presidential Moves: Every President typically wants to get re-elected, so they make moves that potentially “window dress” the economy and stock market before the election.
- Indicator Shift: One of our most important longer-term indicators shifted from negative to positive in late April. It had been negative since the first quarter of 2022, so it was negative for quite a while. While past performance cannot predict future performance, in the past, this type of indicator switch has said brighter days may lie ahead for the stock market in the longer term.
- Shorter-Term Indicator: A shorter-term indicator from our new partnership with the Sherman Portfolios flipped from red to green in May.
- Earnings Season: This past earnings season, 78% of companies reported higher earnings than expected, beating expectations by 6.5% earnings growth on average.
- Trend Reversal: Finally, the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has turned and is now heading up rather than down. This is a longer-term trendline, and in the past, it has had some success identifying a change in trend.
Indicators and Long-Term Strategy
We had a different indicator a few months back saying there is a chance we’ll have a recession this year. We’re hoping that recent improvements in the overall economy, inflation data, and the housing market will provide some stability moving forward. Our new research handled the volatility relatively well this month, but we’re doing our best not to focus on the short-term results because the research has the potential to work well in the long run. We encourage you to come by the office to go over the new strategy with us in person or over a Zoom call.
Financial Planning and Review Meeting
We’d love to have a review meeting with you to discuss investments, retirement income planning, college planning for kids or grandkids, tax preparation, health insurance, including Medicare supplemental and prescription drug plans, and a variety of other financial planning topics. Please contact our office at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a meeting today!
If you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, marital status, 401K options, address, risk tolerance, or any other financial changes, please contact us right away. We hope you and your family are doing well!
Sincerely,
with contributions from Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, and James Baldwin
Notes & Disclaimer: Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Note: Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually. Please consult Summit Financial Consulting for a copy of this document should you need an additional copy. All guarantees are subject to the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research sharing partnership. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer-term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.