Tax Time Reminders:
- This is a reminder that if you took a distribution from an IRA in 2023, or if you had a non-retirement account that paid dividends or had trades placed, you will most likely receive a packet of 1099’s from both TD Ameritrade and Charles Schwab, and you will receive them within the next week if you haven’t already.
- We always recommend waiting until March 15th or later to file your tax return just in case the tax document is updated.
- This is a reminder that representatives of Summit Financial offer tax preparation for individuals and businesses through Summit Tax Services. Through their partnership with the professionals at Heemer Klein provides our clients with a seamless tax preparation experience. Give Summit Tax Services’ tax team a call today at (586) 459-5340 if you’d be interested in learning more about how they can help.
Technical Scams: A Warning
When searching for Schwab, we have discovered that some hackers/impersonators are posting websites that look very similar to Schwab, but they will attempt to steal your identity. Be sure to only go to www.schwaballiance.com when logging into your account online. If you need help logging in, please call (800) 515-2157 with your account number readily available.
Market Update: Strong Four Months
From July 24th to October 23rd the stock market was weak. From October 24th until today, the market has been very strong (Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history). One of our short-term indicators turned from positive to negative on January 29th, 2024 but then flipped back to positive on February 12th because of strong momentum. All of the indicators from our primary research company are still positive, but outside indicators that we observe say the market is very overbought right now (Source: https://www.shermanportfolios.com/indicators). Because of this, there is a decent chance that we will see a market pullback in March or April.
Reasons for Long-Term Optimism Despite Short-Term Concerns
In the long term, four pieces of evidence are currently making us optimistic that the next 8 months until the election have the potential to be good for stocks overall despite some potential short-term bumps in the road.
- First, every President wants to get re-elected, so they make moves that potentially “window dress” the economy and stock market before the election. Please check out the chart from last month’s article for a refresher.
- Second, in late April of 2023, one of our most important longer-term indicators shifted from negative to positive. It had been negative since the first quarter of 2022 when we saw the bulk of our previous market volatility, then it flipped positive to participate in the recovery during 2023. It remains positive at this time, so we remain optimistic about future performance.
- Third, our short-term and intermediate-term indicators are still positive, so four out of four preferred indicators are currently positive.
- Lastly, while past performance cannot predict future performance, the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has turned and has been heading up rather than down (Source: https://www.shermanportfolios.com/indicators). This is a longer-term trendline and in the past, it has had some success identifying a change in trend (Source: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/two-more-bullish-pieces-of-evidence/).
We had a different indicator last year to declare that there is a chance we’ll have a recession within the next year (inverted Yield Curve, Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/06/the-inverted-yield-curve-continues-to-flash-a-recession-warning/?sh=1325948b15ac). We’re hoping that recent improvements in the overall economy, inflation data, and the housing market, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may be lowered in 2024, will provide some stability moving forward.
Speak With a Trusted Advisor
We’d love to have a review meeting with you to discuss investments, retirement planning, college planning for kids or grandkids, tax preparation, health insurance including Medicare supplemental and prescription drug plans, and a variety of other financial planning topics. Please contact our office at (586) 226-2100 to schedule a meeting today!
If you’ve had any changes to your income, job status, marriage status, a new birth in the family, 401K options, address, risk tolerance, or any other financial changes, please contact us right away.
Sincerely,
with contributions from Robert Wink, James Wink, Zachary Bachner, and James Baldwin
Notes & Disclaimer: Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Summit Financial Consulting Investment Advisor Representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC. Please update Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, if your investment objectives have changed or if the personal or financial information previously provided has changed. The investment advisory disclosure document that describes Summit Financial Consulting investment advisory services account is provided to you annually, but additional copies are available upon request. Stock market indices, like the S&P 500 Index, are unmanaged groups of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general or subsets of the market, and their performance is not reflective of the performance of any specific investment. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Historical returns data are calculated using data provided by sources deemed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Dividends are not included in index returns. This information is provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This communication is only intended for recipients who reside in states where our agents are licensed to sell these products. All guarantees are subject to the claims paying ability of the issuing insurance company. Past performance cannot predict future performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Sherman Group, LLC is not associated with Summit Financial Consulting, LLC in any way, other than a research-sharing partnership. There is no perfect system or research feed, and Sherman Group, LLC has had both longer term and short-term periods where they lost money. Investing involves risk, and these portfolios are no exception.