October 2019 – Market Commentary

October 2019 – Market Commentary

Open Enrollment
Just a reminder that open enrollment for health insurance is around the corner. For no cost, we can assist you with Medicare Supplemental, prescription drug plans, healthcare.gov with subsidies, Business health insurance, vision, and dental insurance. Give us a call today because we might be able to save you some money! info@summitfc.net or (586) 226-2100.

Brokerage Update
Great News! TD Ameritrade made the move to $0 commissions! You may have seen the news…TD Ameritrade is eliminating base commissions for online exchange-listed stock, ETF (domestic and Canadian), and options trades. We already only use NTF (No Transaction Fee) investments in our managed portfolios, however, TD Ameritrade just opened up thousands of more cost-free investment options for us to use moving forward. We will be able to run these new investment options through our rigorious investment screening process to make certain we’re only using the very best options available for our clients.

Market Commentary
The 3rd Quarter has now come to a close and it ended mixed for stocks and bonds depending upon which index you prefer to follow. The tech heavy Nasdaq lost -0.09% in the quarter, and the Russell 2000 (smaller US company index) lost -2.76%, while the DOW Jones and S&P 500 both had gains of about 1.19% (Sources: https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-markets-end-tumultuous-quarter-on-quiet-note-11569833596 and https://www.cnbc.com/markets/ ). Monthly statements should be arriving to your home soon if they haven’t already and you can login to your accounts online at TD Ameritrade to view your performance.

Our in-house managed TD Ameritrade portfolios were once again positive across the board for the quarter as we were prepared for increased volatility this summer by going defensive in August when the market was negative. We had a slight dip in the month of September as we experienced an unexpected spike in interest rates and the US dollar, but from a quarterly perspective, all 5 of our in-house portfolios outperformed the indexes with a range of performance from gains of 1.65% up to 2.32% depending upon your risk tolerance. As of today, (October 3rd), with the Dow Jones down over 800 points to start the month, we are once again hitting fresh all-time highs in our portfolios as we took the recent market dip as an opportunity to repurchase REIT and Utility ETFs in our portfolios, which have been outperforming the overall stock market year-to-date.  

2016 was a very volatile year because of the combative style of the presidential election process and the uncertainties surrounding presidential candidate Trump’s policies. The 2019-2020 election season may be even more volatile because of the potential for a dragged out impeachment process, the large list of candidates infighting for the democratic presidential ticket, and the brutal war of words we’ve come to expect from a presidential election. The economy could also just as easily accelerate as President Trump pulls out all the stops to “window dress” the economy before the election. We understand one tweet or announcement from any market mover, whether politican, Fed reserve chairperson, or other finance influencer can dramatically affect the stock market and interest rates, and that is exactly why we manage our portfolios daily.

President Trump has potential impeachment hearings looming, however, taking into consideration everything he has been through the past 4 years, it’s hard not to brush it off as another distraction that will ultimately result in no legal action, but again, we’ll continue to monitor the developments daily. If we believe a move to safety is necessary, we’ll make moves immediately to potentially help protect your hard-earned assets.

If you have any questions about taxes, your investment portfolio, our 401(k) recommendation service, or anything else in general, please give our office a call at (586) 226-2100.  If you have a friend, family member, or co-worker that would like to learn more about our process, please let us know.

Also, feel free to forward this commentary to someone you know that may find it useful.  If they would like to be added to our commentary, please send us an e-mail at info@summitfc.net If you have had any changes to your income, your job, your family, your health insurance, your risk tolerance, or your overall financial situation, please give us a call so we can discuss it.

Thank you for your confidence and referrals!

Bob, Ken, Jim, and Zach
Summit Financial Consulting

Interesting Points

The United States has more than 700,000 open technology jobs, but universities are only producing about 1/10th that number of computer science graduates. Source: Axios, September 21, 2019

In the next two years, humans are set to cross a milestone: We’ll harvest more fish from farms than we catch in the wild.. Source: The Wall Street Journal,September 12, 2019

In the U.S., about 7% of water consumption is used in households, with the rest of it going to industrial use or farms. Source: -New York Times, July 13, 2019

According to Otis Elevator Company, as many as 85% of the high-rises in the world don’t have a 13th floor. MorningBrew, September 13, 2019

The three largest cities in the U.S. are seeing a slow exodus. New York City has an average net of 277 people leave every day, Los Angeles sees 201 people split town, and Chicago loses an average of 161 residents each day. Source: -Bloomberg, August 29, 2019

A new study found that 33% of workers would rather wear jeans to work than receive a $5,000 bump in pay. A third of workers said they would quit their job if ordered to wear business attire. Source:  -CNBC, August 27, 2019

The U.S. poverty rate fell to 11.8%, its lowest level since 2001. Source:  -U.S. News, September 10, 2019

Disclosures regarding our performance reporting:  Because some clients are in the 10% tax bracket and others are in the 37% Federal tax bracket, we have decided to report performance before taxes.  If you have a non-qualified account, please feel free to contact us to determine your individualized rate of return after tax. All of Summit’s performance is after our 1.25% advisory fee that is deducted monthly.  Your fees may be higher or lower depending upon the amount of assets invested with our firm.  Feel free to contact us to receive online access so you can see your personalized rate of return.  The Aggregate bond index we use is ticker: AGG.  All dividends and distributions are reinvested and included in the performance.  The S&P 500 index quoted above does not include dividends within the performance.  If a holding within our portfolio does pay a dividend or other income, it is reinvested, so our performance does include dividends.  This report has been prepared from data believed reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness. Total return and principal value will vary depending upon the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage commissions, reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or fund charges. This information is provided to you in combined form, solely for your convenience and ease of review and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. In order to verify that all account values and transactions are accurate, we encourage you to compare the information provided in our statement with the statement you receive directly from your custodian. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

August 2019 – Market Commentary

August 2019 – Market Commentary

Interest Rate Alert
Interest rates are the lowest they’ve been in three years. If you have good credit you can get a 30-year mortgage for less than 4% and a 15-year mortgage for just over 3%. This is also a great opportunity to refinance a home mortgage or auto loan (any debt really). You don’t need to take money out of your house, but your payments could still go way down. If you’re in the market to purchase or refinance, let us know and we can help you with the process.

Auto and Homeowners Insurance
Just a reminder that we offer independent quotes on Auto Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Umbrella Policies, RV/Boat/Snowmobile Insurance, Workman’s comp, and business liability policies. Give us a call because we might be able to save you some money! info@summitfc.net or (586) 226-2100.

MARKET COMMENTARY — Trade War Becomes Currency War
The market dropped in May but rebounded in June and July. August is off to an alarming start because of new complications in the trade war between the United States and China. On July 31st, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese were approaching trade negotiations with a new tactic: Slow down. They wanted to appear to be willing to negotiate but insiders revealed that the Chinese now believe the US economy is slowing while the Chinese economy has already bottomed, so their negotiating power will increase in time. They also believe there is a chance a Democratic candidate will be elected in 2020 who may not be as confrontational as President Trump while negotiating (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-progress-in-trade-talks-is-partly-a-result-of-chinas-new-tactic-to-wait-1156457495).

President Trump did not enjoy the report, and quickly reacted with a new set of tariffs. The previous tariffs were carefully crafted to avoid pinching the overall economy. The new tariffs impose a tax on nearly all $540 Billion of Chinese goods that come into the US in a year (Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/02/us/trump-china-trade-war-tariffs.html). In response, China weakened their currency and has suspended all purchases of US agricultural products.

What does this mean for your portfolios: The good news is that we were prepared for market turmoil within our managed TD Ameritrade portfolios. We encourage you log in to TD Ameritrade to see your own performance, but just in a few weeks the S&P 500 lost 6.24%, while our in-house managed portfolios were positive across the board during that time period. We cannot predict politics. We do however pay for independent research that tells us what the most likely scenario for the market will be over the intermediate and longer term. We do not always get it right, but we do try to reduce risk when we see signs of danger.

Here’s a quote from our June Market Commentary report: “Our best research is saying that the market should be sluggish this summer overall because of the trade disputes and the positive effects of last year’s tax cuts wearing off, but there’s a decent chance that the market will pick up in the fall.” This is still our position. We will continue to monitor corporate profits and see if the economy is going to continue slowing from that perspective. Our best research is saying August and even September may be rocky, but we’ll be on guard to find investments that are “on-sale” whenever we can. We’re hopeful that everything will rebound in the fall. 

We will let you know if there is a situation which calls for immediate attention.  If you have any questions about taxes, your investment portfolio, our 401(k) recommendation service, or anything else in general, please give our office a call at (586) 226-2100.  If you have a friend, family member, or co-worker that would like to learn more about our process, please let us know.

Also, feel free to forward this commentary to someone you know that may find it useful.  If they would like to be added to our commentary, please send us an e-mail at info@summitfc.net If you have had any changes to your income, your job, your family, your health insurance, your risk tolerance, or your overall financial situation, please give us a call so we can discuss it.

Thank you for your confidence and referrals!

Bob, Ken, and Jim
Summit Financial Consulting

Interesting Points

Since the federal government began tracking data in 1895, the 12-month period ending on April 30, 2019, was the wettest on record for the lower 48 states. Source: -NCEI, June 6, 2019

In every case going back to 1971, when the Fed began a new easing cycle while the economy was expanding, stocks went up three months, six months, nine months and 12 months later. No exceptions. Source:  -Forbes, July 15, 2019

There are now 1.2 million more job openings in the U.S. than there are unemployed Americans. Source: -Associated Press, May 7, 2019

The dollar volume of homes purchased by foreign buyers from April 2018 through March of 2019 dropped 36%. Foreigners bought 183,100 properties down from 266,800 in the previous period. Source:  -CNBC, July 17, 2019

Centenarians, those living to (or beyond) the age of 100, now number 82,000 up from 50,000 in 2002. Those 100-plus are America’s second-fastest growing age group, just after those 85 and older. Source: -WSJ, May 20, 2019

Today, coffee is selling at $0.89 per pound, which is down from a peak of $2.20 a pound in 2015. The National Coffee Association estimates that the cost of producing one pound of coffee is $1.93. Source:  -NumLock News, June 13, 2019

Americans will spend more time on their mobile devices than watching TV this year for the first time ever. The average adult will spend 3 hours 43 minutes a day on a mobile device compared to 3 hours and 35 minutes watching TV. Source: -MarketWatch, June 6, 2019

Of the 20 times stocks have rallied in the first six months of the year by more than 10%, the S&P 500 has gone on to average a return of 7.5% in the final six months. Source:  -CNBC, July 5, 2019

Disclosures regarding our performance reporting:  Because some clients are in the 10% tax bracket and others are in the 37% Federal tax bracket, we have decided to report performance before taxes.  If you have a non-qualified account, please feel free to contact us to determine your individualized rate of return after tax. All of Summit’s performance is after our 1.25% advisory fee that is deducted monthly.  Your fees may be higher or lower depending upon the amount of assets invested with our firm.  Feel free to contact us to receive online access so you can see your personalized rate of return.  The Aggregate bond index we use is ticker: AGG.  All dividends and distributions are reinvested and included in the performance.  The S&P 500 index quoted above does not include dividends within the performance.  If a holding within our portfolio does pay a dividend or other income, it is reinvested, so our performance does include dividends.  This report has been prepared from data believed reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness. Total return and principal value will vary depending upon the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage commissions, reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or fund charges. This information is provided to you in combined form, solely for your convenience and ease of review and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. In order to verify that all account values and transactions are accurate, we encourage you to compare the information provided in our statement with the statement you receive directly from your custodian. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

Summit Financial Consulting LLC

43409 Schoenherr Road, Sterling Heights, MI 48313
Phone: 586-226-2100 Fax: 586-226-3584 E-mail: info@summitfc.net
Securities offered through Gradient Securities, LLC (Arden Hills, MN (866)991-1539) Member FINRA/SIPC
Summit Financial Consulting LLC is independent and is not an affiliate of Gradient Securities, LLC. Investment advisory
services offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of Michigan.

SUSCCMICOC_2814_SHRCCI proud to be

June 2019 – Market Commentary

June 2019 – Market Commentary

Interest Rate Alert
Interest rates are the lowest they have been in over a year and a half. This may be a great opportunity to purchase or refinance your home or automobile. If you are curious if you could lower the payments on your home, car, or any other debt payments, let us know and we can help you with the process.

MARKET COMMENTARY
In April within our most recent commentary we gave our clients a warning that the market was potentially overvalued and that we reduced risk within our in-house managed portfolios because the indicator that told us to sell in September of 2018 before the big decline was once again sending us an alarm.  We also pay attention to the flow of “smart money” and noticed that a large % of the big institutional investors sold their profits in April and exited the market to a certain degree. That doesn’t always bode well for the “little guys” in the stock market and is sometimes a useful indicator of things to come.  Well, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones proceeded to both drop over 6.5% in the month of May (Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC).

We were prepared for increased volatility, so we kept a defensive positioning in May within our in-house managed TD Ameritrade portfolios and gained between 1.5% and 2.35% depending upon your risk tolerance.  That means we outperformed the market by over 8.0% last month. We also saw this as an opportunity to buy and ended up purchasing three equity positions (Consumer Staples, Utilities, and REITs) on May 31st after the sizeable drop. This has worked out well to begin the month of June. 

read more…

April 2019 – Market Commentary

April 2019 – Market Commentary

Disclaimer:  These are the views of Summit Financial Consulting and should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. 

MARKET COMMENTARY
The first quarter of 2019 saw the stock market rebound from the nearly 20% decline that ended 2018.  Our TD Ameritrade in-house managed portfolios have provided a consistent uptrend over the past few years and 2019 has continued that trend so far.

The S&P 500 is now approaching the levels it reached last September before the market dropped.  It’s worth noting that this is the spot where we sold the majority of our stocks last fall.  We receive an indicator every day from one of our independent research firms that tells us whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.  It ranges from 0 all the way up to 36.  0 is the best buying opportunity and 36 is the best selling opportunity.  The indicator moved all the way to 36, and has since turned red, telling us that there is a higher probability of a drop in the market soon.

Because of this, we have once again taken some defensive measures inside our managed portfolios and have moved inverse in a number of our portfolios.  If this indicator changes to green, or if our other research tools tell us that the market is more likely to jump to all-time-highs and higher, then we will reverse course and step on the gas.  For now, we’re reducing risk to potentially increase protection on the downside.

When you take into consideration that the China trade dispute, North Korean nuclear situation, withdrawals from the wars in Afghanistan and Syria, not to mention plenty of government political disagreements are all up in the air, it’s  certainly a period of time where reviewing the portfolio daily is a good idea.

We will let you know if there is a situation which calls for immediate attention.  If you have any questions about taxes, your investment portfolio, our 401(k) recommendation service, or anything else in general, please give our office a call at (586) 226-2100.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to a friend, family member, or co-worker.  If they would like to be added to our complimentary commentary, please send us an e-mail at info@summitfc.net at your earliest convenience.  If you have had any changes to your income, your job, your family, your health insurance, your risk tolerance, or your overall financial situation, please give us a call so we can discuss it.

Thank you for your confidence and referrals!

Bob, Ken, and Jim 
Summit Financial Consulting

Interesting Points

Billionaire Warren Buffett, a major Apple investor, uses a $20 flip phone, one that he has had for a while, joking that Alexander Graham Bell loaned it to him and he forget to return it. Source:  -CNBC, March 28, 2019

In 2018, movie ticket prices averaged $9.11. Adjusted for inflation, it is now cheaper to go to the movies than it was in the 1970’s. Source: Marketplace, March 14, 2019

On average, the flu kills between 12,000 and 56,000 people in the U.S. each season, according to the CDC. Source:  -The Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2019

A recent poll by the New York Times show that 74% of parents have made an appointment, like a doctor’s visit, for their 18-to-28-year-old children, 16% helped write their job or internship application, and 11% called their child’s employer when an issue arose. Source:  FXStreet, March 22, 2019

Over the 2017 holiday season, a company investigated the germiest airport spots, performing 18 tests across six different surfaces from three major U.S. airports looking to identify the average number of bacteria per square inch. It might surprise you to learn that self-check-in kiosks had the highest number with Atlanta Hartsfield coming in at 1 million CFU. To put that into perspective, an average airport toilet seat contains 172 CFU. Source: -Curiosity, June 21, 2018

In the past five cycles, the time between the Fed’s final interest rate hike and its first interest rate cut has averaged just 6.6 months. Source: CNBC, March 26, 2019uary 2, 2019

The government collected an estimated $4.7 billion in taxes from legal cannabis companies last year on nearly $13 billion in revenue. Source: -Daily-Qz.com, November 14, 2018

Student debt now exceeds $1.5 trillion and nearly 40% of borrowers are expected to default by 2023. Source:  -CNBC, August 13, 2018

Disclosures regarding our performance reporting:  Because some clients are in the 10% tax bracket and others are in the 37% Federal tax bracket, we have decided to report performance before taxes.  If you have a non-qualified account, please feel free to contact us to determine your individualized rate of return after tax. All of Summit’s performance is after our 1.25% advisory fee that is deducted monthly.  Your fees may be higher or lower depending upon the amount of assets invested with our firm.  Feel free to contact us to receive online access so you can see your personalized rate of return.  The Aggregate bond index we use is ticker: AGG.  All dividends and distributions are reinvested and included in the performance.  The S&P 500 index quoted above does not include dividends within the performance.  If a holding within our portfolio does pay a dividend or other income, it is reinvested, so our performance does include dividends.  This report has been prepared from data believed reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness. Total return and principal value will vary depending upon the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage commissions, reinvestment of dividends and other earnings or fund charges. This information is provided to you in combined form, solely for your convenience and ease of review and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. In order to verify that all account values and transactions are accurate, we encourage you to compare the information provided in our statement with the statement you receive directly from your custodian. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

Summit Financial Consulting LLC

43409 Schoenherr Road, Sterling Heights, MI 48313
Phone: 586-226-2100 Fax: 586-226-3584 E-mail: info@summitfc.net
Securities offered through Gradient Securities, LLC (Arden Hills, MN (866)991-1539) Member FINRA/SIPC
Summit Financial Consulting LLC is independent and is not an affiliate of Gradient Securities, LLC. Investment advisory
services offered through Summit Financial Consulting LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of Michigan.

SUSCCMICOC_2814_SHRCCI proud to be

SUSCCMICOC_2814_SHRCCI proud to be

Contact Us

Phone: 586-226-2100
Fax: 586-226-3584
info@summitfc.net

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We are located at:
43409 Schoenherr Road
Sterling Heights, MI 48313
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Investment advisory services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC, a MI registered investment advisor. Insurance products and services are offered through Summit Financial Consulting, LLC.  Summit Financial Consulting, LLC and its representatives do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. Summit Financial Consulting, LLC is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency.

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